In this seminar, we will present how Energy Balance Models (EBMs) can be used to explore climate change dynamics. The first part focuses on ongoing research that investigates a fast-slow system where solar radiation acts as the fast component, while a zero-dimensional EBM describes the slow component. This model exhibits mathematical parallels with the seminal stochastic EBM inspired by Hasselmann's proposal, and we explore these similarities in terms of deterministic limits, fluctuations, and large deviations.

In the second part, we will discuss a completed research project that extends the analysis of 1D EBMs by introducing local instability effects and additive white noise. The model captures the super-greenhouse effect, a tropical feedback mechanism, and incorporates fast weather fluctuations as white noise. By numerically studying the long-term behaviour of the model's invariant measure, we investigate the link between increased greenhouse gas concentrations and extreme weather events.

This seminar relies on joint works with F. Flandoli (Scuola Normale Superiore).